Virtual reality? When visualization needs vision

Virtual reality (VR) technology seems to offer huge potential, however the VR market not growing rapidly? The reasons for this are discussed. Some suggest that VR has been hyped beyond what it can possibly deliver, and disappointed users are rejecting it. Others point to the technical and ergonomic issues that still have to be solved. Yet others say that the market is now, at last, showing signs of steady growth. Our interpretation of the experience in the VR market is different again. We argue in this paper that the market has not taken off because VR remains in what we shall call a pre-paradigmatic stage. Different vendors and users have contrasting, and often incompatible, visions of where the technology is heading and sometimes, indeed, where it is now. The lack of a clear paradigm makes for a confusing picture in which users find it too risky to invest in applying the technology, and vendors are too dispersed to build up a critical mass around some leading implementations of VR. The paper shows that when we try to describe what VR is and where it is heading we encounter a considerable diversity of views amongst practitioners. The paper describes what we mean by a pre-paradigmatic stage in the development of a technology, and why we think VR is still in such a stage. It is briefly explained why diffusion is at best slow during this pre-paradigmatic stage. In conclusion, the paper argues that "visualization needs vision" if the VR market is to take off in earnest.