人口金字塔与经济增长:斯里兰卡的计量经济分析

P. J. Kumarasinghe, A. Wickramasinghe
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引用次数: 1

摘要

经济学家基本上分为三种思想流派,第一种理论认为人口增长会刺激一个国家的经济增长,另一种理论认为人口增长会给经济增长带来有害或不利的影响。不仅如此,还有另一种学派认为人口增长是经济增长的中性因素。鉴于这种不同的观点,通过这项研究,预计将在斯里兰卡的人口增长和经济增长之间建立牢固的关系。本研究利用1980年至2015年的时间序列数据开发了一个计量经济模型,不仅测试了斯里兰卡的GDP关系,还测试了经济的其他重要变量,如国内储蓄、私人消费和总投资。本研究的结果表明,斯里兰卡的人口增长和GDP之间没有长期的关系,其他选择的变量和斯里兰卡的人口增长之间也没有任何关系。格兰杰因果分析发现GDP与人口增长呈单向关系,从人口增长到GDP。研究得出结论,在斯里兰卡的背景下,人口增长不会对经济增长产生任何重大影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Population Pyramid And Economic Growth: An Econometric analysis of Sri Lanka
Economists are torn between basically three schools of thoughts where the first theory states that the population growth will stimulate the economic growth of a country and other believes that the population growth will bring detrimental or adverse impact to the economic growth. Not only that, but there is another school of thought, which believes that the population growth is a neutral factor in economic growth. Given this diverse of opinions, through this study it is expected to established a firm relationship between the population growth and the economic growth of Sri Lanka. This study developed an econometric model using time series data from 1980 to 2015 and tested the relationship not only the GDP of Sri Lanka, but other significant variables of an economy such as Domestic Savings, Private consumption and Total Investment as well.  The results of this study indicate absence of a long term relationship between the population growth and the GDP of Sri Lanka and there will be no any relationship between the other selected variables and the population growth of Sri Lanka. The Granger Causality Analysis found out a unidirectional relationship between the GDP and the population growth, running from population growth to GDP. The study concludes that in Sri Lankan context, the population growth will not have any significant impact on the economic growth.
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