基于LSTM的大型风电市场电价预测研究

Sangli Liu, Liang Zhang, B. Zou
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引用次数: 3

摘要

在放松管制的电力市场中,准确了解电价走势有助于电力市场参与者的利润最大化。但随着清洁能源比重的不断提高,给电价预测带来了新的挑战。本文主要研究风电占比较大的电力市场如何更准确地预测电价。引入了风荷载比特征,它不仅可以作为预测模型的候选输入,而且是区分昼夜的重要指标。根据选取的特点建立电价模型,并采用丹麦电力市场的实际数据进行仿真。结果表明,考虑风负荷比的时间序列LSTM电价模型精度最高,证明了所提模型的可行性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Study on Electricity Market Price Forecasting with Large-Scale wind Power Based on LSTM
In the deregulated electricity market, accurate knowledge of electricity price trend helps maximize the profit of participants in the electricity market. But with the increasing proportion of clean energy, it brings new challenges to price forecast. This paper mainly studies how to forecast the electricity price more accurately in the power market which has large proportion of wind power. A new feature called wind load ratio is introduced, which is not only used as a candidate input of the predicted model, but also an important indicator to distinguish day and night. The electricity price model is established according to the selected characteristics, and the actual data of the Danish electricity market are used for simulation. The results show that the time series LSTM electricity price model with wind load ratio has the highest accuracy, which proves the feasibility of the proposed model.
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