Pain, Suffering and Jury Awards: A Study of the Cost of Wrongful Convictions

This paper estimates society’s valuation of avoiding wrongful convictions and the time spent in prison based on cross sectional regression analysis of awards and settlements for individuals who were wrongfully convicted and incarcerated for crimes they did not commit. Key variables of interest are number of days spent in prison, days on probation, demographics of wrongfully convicted and their families. The sample consists of all known individuals (n=514) who successfully sued for damages and received payment through either trial or settlement between 1992 and 2019. Wrongful convictions cause significant tangible and intangible harm to individuals and their families which can be monetized using ex post jury awards. The average “cost” of a wrongful conviction is estimated to be $5.7 million, or $1,241 per day of incarceration. The marginal cost decreases over time: initial incarceration is valued at over $128,000 for the first day; year one is valued at $1.65 million ($4,523/day), the marginal cost of the 10th year is estimated to be $293,249 ($803/day). Wrongfully convicting one individual is about as costly as the harm caused by a career criminal over their lifetime. Future research might focus on society’s ex ante willingness-to-pay to avoid wrongful convictions. This study provides policymakers with a tool to value increased expenditures for DNA testing, indigent defense counsel, and other innovations designed to reduce wrongful convictions.