大衰退后美国房价的决定因素:极端极限分析

L'Actualité économique Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI:10.7202/1087008ar

Achille Dargaud Fofack, Serge Djoudji Temkeng

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引用次数: 1

摘要

激发了本文的灵感，其目的是强调大衰退后美国房价的强大决定因素。因此，基于经济文献和数据的可用性，已经选择了12个潜在的房价决定因素。从2009年7月(美国经济走出衰退之日)到2019年4月，这些月度数据分别使用Leamer和Leonard(1983年)和Sala-i-Martin(1997年)开发的极限界分析方法进行了研究。结果表明，建筑支出、租金通胀、抵押贷款利率、房地产贷款、经济活动和量化宽松是房价的重要决定因素。除量化宽松政策外，本文强调的决定因素在文献中经常被引用，因为它们与房地产行业的基本面有关。因此，与当前美国房价演变相关的非理性繁荣可能是由于美联储实施的量化宽松计划。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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LES DÉTERMINANTS DES PRIX DE L’IMMOBILIER AUX ÉTATS-UNIS APRÈS LA GRANDE RÉCESSION : UNE ANALYSE DES BORNES EXTRÊMES

have inspired this paper of which the aim is to highlight the robust determinants of house prices in the United States after the Great Recession. Thus, based on the economic literature and data availability, 12 potential determinants of house prices have been selected. Those monthly data covering the period from July 2009 – date at which the American economy came out of recession – to April 2019, are studied using the approaches of extreme bound analysis developed by Leamer and Leonard (1983) and by Sala-i-Martin (1997) respecti-vely. The results show that construction spending, rent inﬂation, mortgage rate, real estate loan, economic activity and quantitative easing are robust determinants of house prices. Ex-cept for quantitative easing, the determinants highlighted in this paper are regularly cited in the literature because they are related to the fundamentals of the real estate sector. Thus, the irrational exuberance that could be associated with the current evolution of house prices in the United States might be due to the quantitative easing programs implemented by the Federal Reserve.

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L'Actualité économique

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