新冠肺炎疫情对撒哈拉以南非洲股市的影响

Saifullahi Adam Bayero, Babangida Danladi Safiyanu, Zaitun Sanusi Bakabe
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引用次数: 1

摘要

被世界卫生组织宣布为全球大流行的冠状病毒病(COVID-19)给包括撒哈拉以南非洲在内的所有国家带来了严重的经济问题。鉴于covid - 19对世界经济的负面影响,本文研究了covid - 19相关病例和死亡对撒哈拉以南非洲国家证券市场波动的影响。该研究使用了四个撒哈拉以南非洲国家(尼日利亚、南非、肯尼亚和博茨瓦纳)的报告病例数和死亡人数,中国和美国的报告病例数和死亡人数,以及所有股票指数作为2020年2月28日至2020年12月21日四个国家股市的代表。研究估计了GARCH 11、TGARCH 11和EGARCH 11,因为这些变量的性质是异方差的,使得ARCH的应用是可行的;选择标准以赤池、施瓦茨和汉南信息标准为基础。结果表明,新冠肺炎确诊病例和死亡人数对撒哈拉以南非洲国家股票市场的运行没有影响,但在分析期间,市场的波动性有所增加。此外,博茨瓦纳和肯尼亚股市受到来自中国的外部案例的影响。因此,我们建议撒哈拉以南非洲的股票市场利益攸关方更加关注卫生安全措施,并为未来可能影响市场的任何大流行做好准备。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Impact of Covid-19 on Stock Market in Sub-Saharan Africa
Corona virus disease (COVID-19) which was declared by the World Health Organization as a global pandemic caused serious economic problem to all the countries including Sub-Saharan Africa. Given the negative impact of COVID19 on the world economy, this paper examined the impact of COVID19 related cases and death on stock exchange markets volatility in Sub-Saharan African countries. The study used the number of reported cases and death from four Sub-Saharan African countries viz Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya, and Botswana, reported cases and death from China and U.S. and all share index as a proxy of stock markets in four countries from 28 February 2020 to 21 December 2020. The study estimated GARCH 11, TGARCH 11, and EGARCH 11 since the variables are heteroskadestic in nature which makes the application of ARCH lausible; the selection criterion was based on Akaike, Schwarz, and Hannan info Criteria. The result shows that COVID19 confirmed cases and death do not affect the operation of the stock markets in Sub-Saharan African countries, but the volatility of the markets has increased within the period of analysis. Furthermore, Botswana and Kenya stock markets were affected by external cases from China. We therefore recommended that stock markets stakeholders in Sub-Saharan Africa should be more concern about health safety measures and be ready for any future pandemic that might affect the markets.
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