苏丹的劳动力市场和失业

S. Nour
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引用次数: 5

摘要

本文考察了苏丹劳动力市场的结构和失业情况。我们在本文中分析的一个优势是,我们使用基于苏丹中央统计局(2010年)第五次苏丹人口和住房普查(2008年)的人口、就业和失业的新二手数据,解释了劳动力市场的几个风格化事实。在我们的分析中,一个有趣的因素是,我们解释了几个关于劳动力市场结构与人口结构、劳动力、参与率、经济活动、低技能水平和高失业率之间关系的特定事实,这些关系由苏丹的性别、生活方式和主要地理区域所界定。与实证文献中支持菲利普斯曲线关于通货膨胀与失业率负相关的发现不同,我们发现2000-2008年期间苏丹的失业率与通货膨胀率之间存在显著的正相关关系。此外,与苏丹文献中的分析不同,我们对苏丹失业问题的四个程式化事实进行了更全面的分析,其中包括几种失业类型的区分;内因和外因对失业问题的内因和外因解读分析青年人口的高失业率和教育资格-供应-和劳动力市场需求-需求之间的高度不匹配。我们的研究结果的主要政策含义表明,由于失业问题与这些内生和外生原因有关,因此,减少失业的政策干预应该处理这些内生和外生原因。值得注意的是,改善创造就业机会和教育政策的质量以及教育资格(产出)与劳动力市场需求之间的一致性。我们关于失业率上升与通货膨胀率之间显著正相关关系(2000-2008年)的研究结果的另一个主要政策含义是,旨在或以降低通货膨胀率为目标的宏观经济政策也将有助于降低苏丹的失业率。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Labour Market and Unemployment in Sudan
This paper examines the structure of the labour market and unemployment in Sudan. One advantage of our analysis in this paper is that we explain several stylized facts on labour market using new secondary data on population, employment and unemployment based on Sudan Central Bureau of Statistics (2010) the Fifth Sudan Population and Housing Census (2008). An interesting element in our analysis is that we explain several stylized facts on the relation between structure of the labour market and demographic structure, labour force, participation rates, economic activities, low skill level and high unemployment rate defined by gender, mode of living and main geographic areas in Sudan. Different from the findings in the empirical literature in support of the Phillips curve on the negative correlation between inflation and unemployment rates, we find positive and significant correlation between unemployment and inflation rates in Sudan during the period (2000-2008). Moreover, different from the analysis in the Sudanese literature we present a more comprehensive analysis of four stylized facts on the unemployment problem in Sudan, these include distinction of several types of unemployment; interpretation of unemployment problem from two different endogenous and exogenous perspectives due to endogenous and exogenous causes; analysis of high incidence of unemployment among youth population and high mismatch between educational qualifications -supply- and labour market requirements- demand. The major policy implication from our findings indicate that since unemployment problem is related to these endogenous and exogenous causes, therefore, policies intervention for reducing unemployment should deal with these endogenous and exogenous causes. Notably, improvement of job creation and quality of educational policies and consistency between educational qualifications (output) and labour market requirements. Another major policy implication from our result on the significant positive correlation between increase in unemployment and inflation rates (2000-2008), implies that macroeconomic policies aimed at or targeting reducing inflation rates would also contribute to reduce unemployment rates in Sudan.
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