{"title":"随机失效的卫星寿命预测","authors":"Haitao Zhao, Hui Yang, Xiao Xiong","doi":"10.1109/ICRMS.2016.8050129","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The remaining life prediction of the satellite is of great significance in the operation of the satellite and the maintenance strategy of the constellation. The existing life prediction methods only consider the propellant consumption, thus a new dynamic life prediction method considering not only consumption but also random failure and degradation is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the failure characteristics of the satellite are analyzed, and then the satellite life model is established which contains three kinds of mechanisms including random failure, degradation and consumption. Secondly, according to current satellite operation data and Monte Carlo simulation model, the satellite remaining life is obtained through the comparison of the different lifetime determined by each mechanism. Finally, in a case study, the remaining life of 5 satellites on orbit is analyzed. The analysis results show that this new method is more accurate and credible.","PeriodicalId":347031,"journal":{"name":"2016 11th International Conference on Reliability, Maintainability and Safety (ICRMS)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2016-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Satellite lifetime prediction with random failure\",\"authors\":\"Haitao Zhao, Hui Yang, Xiao Xiong\",\"doi\":\"10.1109/ICRMS.2016.8050129\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The remaining life prediction of the satellite is of great significance in the operation of the satellite and the maintenance strategy of the constellation. The existing life prediction methods only consider the propellant consumption, thus a new dynamic life prediction method considering not only consumption but also random failure and degradation is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the failure characteristics of the satellite are analyzed, and then the satellite life model is established which contains three kinds of mechanisms including random failure, degradation and consumption. Secondly, according to current satellite operation data and Monte Carlo simulation model, the satellite remaining life is obtained through the comparison of the different lifetime determined by each mechanism. Finally, in a case study, the remaining life of 5 satellites on orbit is analyzed. The analysis results show that this new method is more accurate and credible.\",\"PeriodicalId\":347031,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"2016 11th International Conference on Reliability, Maintainability and Safety (ICRMS)\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2016-10-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"2016 11th International Conference on Reliability, Maintainability and Safety (ICRMS)\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMS.2016.8050129\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"2016 11th International Conference on Reliability, Maintainability and Safety (ICRMS)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMS.2016.8050129","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
The remaining life prediction of the satellite is of great significance in the operation of the satellite and the maintenance strategy of the constellation. The existing life prediction methods only consider the propellant consumption, thus a new dynamic life prediction method considering not only consumption but also random failure and degradation is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the failure characteristics of the satellite are analyzed, and then the satellite life model is established which contains three kinds of mechanisms including random failure, degradation and consumption. Secondly, according to current satellite operation data and Monte Carlo simulation model, the satellite remaining life is obtained through the comparison of the different lifetime determined by each mechanism. Finally, in a case study, the remaining life of 5 satellites on orbit is analyzed. The analysis results show that this new method is more accurate and credible.
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