考虑数据预处理的碳排放预测方法研究

Yin Wang, Jiahui Tian, Ligang He, Qianmao Zhang, Lijie Zhang, S. Miao
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引用次数: 0

摘要

实现准确的碳排放预测是制定和评估低碳转型升级战略的重要前提。然而,现有的碳排放预测方法容易受到数据异常和社会因素的影响。针对上述问题,本文研究了一种考虑数据预处理方法的碳排放预测模型。首先,建立“碳电转换”计算模型,计算“碳电转换”系数;其次,采用隔离森林算法、指数平滑法等数据预处理方法剔除异常数据,然后将处理后的“碳-电”转换系数输入到建立的BA-LSTM预测模型中,结合用电量计算得到碳排放的预测结果。最后,利用中国某省全社会用电量和能源消耗数据进行验证分析。结果表明,与传统的碳排放预测方法相比,本文提出的计算模型结合数据预处理方法具有更高的预测精度。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Research on Carbon Emission Prediction Method Considering Data Preprocessing
Achieving accurate carbon emission forecasts is an important prerequisite for formulating and evaluating low-carbon transformation and upgrading strategies. However, the existing carbon emission forecasting methods are vulnerable to abnormal data and social factors. Aiming at the above problems, this paper studies a carbon emission prediction model considering the data preprocessing method. First, establish the calculation model of 'converting carbon by electricity', and calculate the conversion coefficient of 'carbon-electricity'; Secondly, data preprocessing methods such as isolated forest algorithm and exponential smoothing method are used to eliminate abnormal data, and then the processed 'carbon-electricity' conversion coefficient is input into the established BA-LSTM prediction model, and the prediction result of carbon emissions is obtained by combining with electricity consumption calculation. Finally, a verification analysis is carried out with the data of the whole society's electricity consumption and energy consumption in a certain province in China. The results show that, compared with the traditional carbon emission prediction method, the calculation model combined with the data preprocessing method proposed in this paper has higher prediction accuracy.
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