В. Ю. Григорьев, Т. Д. Миллионщикова, А. А. Сазонов, С. Р. Чалов
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引用次数: 0
摘要
本文给出了1950-2016年贝加尔湖最大支流色楞加河、Verkhnyaya Angara河、巴尔古津河、Turka河、Khara-Murin河、Snezhnaya河、Utulik河和Bolshaya Rechka河径流变化分析结果。以CRU TS数据为基础,研究了1976-1995年和1996-2016年降水率(P)和潜在蒸散(PET)变化对流域年径流量(R)变化的影响。使用ECOMAG模型评估使用P和PET数据对Budyko公式进行各种修改后的R再现精度。结果表明,在色楞格河流域,根据公式计算的R值与模型计算的R值相差0.2 ~ 0.53 mm, P值异常范围为-10% ~ +10%。结果表明,1950—2016年,贝加尔湖流域整体呈现P、R降低、PET升高的特征。1976-1995年和1996-2016年计算R值与观测值的偏差被解释为其他因素的影响,包括下垫面的性质以及降水和潜在蒸散发的年际分布特征。其他因素在R变化中的作用因所考虑的流域和时期而异。结果表明,1950-2016年期间的P和E变化可以解释贝加尔湖流域约50%的R变化。气候变化下贝加尔湖流域河流径流变化情景评估必须考虑除P和PET因子外的其他因子对贝加尔湖流域河流径流的敏感性。1976-1995年(除哈拉-木林河)和1996-2016年(除哈拉-木林河和色楞嘎河)的产流条件比1950-1975年有利。
Общественное движение коренных народов Ямало-Ненецкого автономного округа в конце XX - начале XXI вв.
The results of the analysis of 1950–2016 runoff changes of the Baikal Lake largest tributaries, namely the Selenga, Verkhnyaya Angara, Barguzin, Turka, Khara-Murin, Snezhnaya, Utulik and Bolshaya Rechka rivers, are presented. The influence of changing precipitation rate (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) on the changes in annual river runoff (R) for 1976–1995 and 1996–2016 compared to 1950–1975 is considered basing on the CRU TS data. The ECOMAG model was used to evaluate the R reproducing accuracy with various modifications of the Budyko formula using P and PET data. It was found that the difference between the R value calculated according to a formula and the modeled one is from 0,2 mm to 0,53 mm in the Selenga River basin with the P anomaly from –10% to +10%. It is shown that during 1950– 2016 the Baikal Lake basin as a whole is characterized by the decrease in P and R and the increase in PET. Deviation of calculated R values from observed ones for 1976–1995 and 1996–2016 was interpreted as an influence of other factors, which include both the properties of the underlying surface and specific features of the intra-annual distribution of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The role of other factors in the change of R varies depending on the catchment and period under consideration. It is shown that P and E changes during 1950–2016 explain about 50% of the R change in the Baikal Lake basin. Susceptibility of river runoff in the Baikal Lake basin to factors other than P and PET must be taken into account while assessing the scenarios of runoff changes of the Baikal rivers under climate change. It was also revealed that in 1976–1995 (except for the Khara-Murin River) and in 1996–2016 (except for the Khara-Murin and Selenga rivers) the runoff formation conditions were more favorable than in 1950–1975.