外汇回购形式的冲销干预:基于俄罗斯数据的VECM分析

A. Shulgin
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引用次数: 1

摘要

这项研究调查了俄罗斯银行在2014年对俄罗斯实施金融制裁后启动的外汇回购计划。使用俄罗斯2014-2017年的每日统计数据来估计三个矢量误差修正模型,这些模型揭示了以外币回购形式的冲销干预对卢布兑美元汇率的统计显着的临时影响。汇率对外币借款扩张的脉冲响应符号正确,在第9个工作日达到最大值,并在拍卖日期后7-14个工作日内发现具有统计学意义。汇率的反应是不对称的:外汇回购计划的逐步退出对汇率没有统计学上的显著影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Sterilized Interventions in the Form of Foreign Currency Repos: VECM Analysis Using Russian Data
The study examines the foreign currency repo program launched by the Bank of Russia after financial sanctions were imposed on Russia in 2014. Russian 2014-2017 daily statistics were used to estimate three vector error correction models which revealed a statistically significant temporary effect of sterilized interventions in the form of foreign currency repos on the ruble exchange rate to the dollar. An impulse response of the exchange rate to the expansion in foreign-currency-denominated borrowings has the correct sign, reaches its maximum on the 9th business day and is found to be statistically significant within 7-14 business days after the auction date. The response of the exchange rate was found to be asymmetric: the winding down of the foreign currency repo program had no statistically significant effect on the exchange rate.
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