开放经济中的动物精神:基于互动的商业周期研究方法

Tae-Seok Jang
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引用次数: 1

摘要

摘要本文在两国新凯恩斯模型中考察了有界理性预期对经济周期的影响。De Grauwe(2011)模型对封闭经济中的预测启发式进行了扩展,并在开放经济中纳入了异质主体的影响。特别是,期望的形成过程受到乐观主义者和悲观主义者浪潮的制约,即所谓的“动物精神”。因此,该模型能够解释基于预测绩效的群体行为,这对两国的产出和通货膨胀动态具有重大影响。模拟结果表明,群体行为和名义刚性的异质性,以及适度的国际贸易,放大了对国际商业周期的溢出效应,导致产出和通货膨胀的高度相互关联。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Animal spirits in an open economy: an interaction-based approach to the business cycle
Abstract This paper examines the effects of boundedly rational expectation on the business cycle in a two-country New Keynesian model. Forecast heuristics in a closed-economy, De Grauwe’s (2011) model, is extended, and the effects of heterogeneous agents are incorporated in an open economy. In particular, the expectation formation process is constrained by waves of optimists and pessimists – the so-called “animal spirits.” As a result, the model is able to explain group behavior based on forecast performance, which has significant effects on output and inflation dynamics in the two countries. The simulation results suggest that heterogeneity in group behavior and nominal rigidities, as well as a moderate degree of international trade, amplify spillover effects on international business cycles leading to high cross-correlations in output and inflation.
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