尼泊尔气候、土地、能源和水系统关联优化模型

Hemanta Bhandari, Hari Bahadur Darlami, A. Jha
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摘要

本文介绍了令人惊叹的CLEWs尼泊尔模型——一个强大的工具,它揭示了气候政策与土地、能源和水等关键资源之间错综复杂的相互作用。随着越来越多的国家采取大胆措施应对气候变化,了解这些决定对其他部门的连锁反应至关重要。这就是CLEWs发挥作用的地方,它为决策者提供了有关各种气候政策的权衡和协同效应的宝贵见解。本文考察了全球电力需求增长对尼泊尔温室气体排放、用水和水电生产的影响。该研究预测,到2050年,在目前的情况下,以最佳增长率为基础,该国将只需要产生9千兆瓦的电力,其中大部分可以通过水力发电来实现。然而,二氧化碳排放量将会增加,特别是来自运输和生物质部门。为了减轻这种增长的影响,该研究建议改善灌溉农业和森林保护。国家自主贡献(NDC)的实施也有助于减少二氧化碳排放和增加水电生产。我们对模型进行了校准,以揭示对不同部门的长期能源消耗模式、基于灌溉水平的不同作物产量以及公共和电力部门的总用水量的有趣见解。这还不是全部——我们还考虑了在优化公众对能源、食物和水的需求时产生的排放。我们的模型为尼泊尔提供了一系列政策选择,包括国家自主贡献方案,这有助于减少二氧化碳排放,保护水和土地等重要资源。我们还确定了成功实施这些政策所需的成本和技术组合。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Climate, Land, Energy and Water System Nexus Optimization Modeling for Nepal
This paper introduces the amazing CLEWs Nepal model - a powerful tool that sheds light on the intricate interplay between climate policies and crucial resources like land, energy, and water. With more and more countries taking bold steps to combat climate change, it's crucial to understand the ripple effects of such decisions on other sectors. That's where CLEWs come in, providing decision-makers with valuable insights into the trade-offs and synergies involved in various climate policies. This paper examines the impact of the increasing global demand for power on greenhouse gas emissions, water usage, and hydropower production in Nepal. The study projects that by 2050, under current scenario and based on optimum growth rate, the country will only need to generate 9 GW of power, which can be mostly fulfilled by hydropower. However, there will be rise in CO2 emissions, particularly from the transport and biomass sectors. To mitigate the impact of this growth, the study recommends improving irrigated farming and forest conservation. The implementation of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) can also contribute to reducing CO2 emissions and increasing hydropower production. We've calibrated the model to reveal fascinating insights into the long-term energy consumption patterns across different sectors, varying crop production based on irrigation levels, and total water usage in public and power sectors. And that's not all - we've also factored in the emissions produced while optimizing energy, food, and water demands for the public. Our model offers a range of policy options for Nepal, including an NDC scenario, which can help reduce CO2 emissions and preserve vital resources like water and land. We've also identified the costs and technology mix necessary to successfully implement these policies.
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