Risk Assessment Method of Distribution Network with considering Multiple Photovoltaic Generations Uncertainties

More and more photovoltaic generation power has been integrated into the distribution network. Uncertainties of PV generation bring risks to system operation of the distribution network. In this paper, a new method was proposed for risk assessment of distribution network with consideration of multiple PVs’ uncertainties. Firstly, probabilistic characteristics of each PV generation was forecasted using dynamic Bayesian network(DBN). Secondly, multiple PV generation uncertainties were calculated with consideration of the probability of each operating state. And then power network severities in terms of thermal and voltage violations were calculated. Finally, the system risk indices were computed by using probability multiply severity. A practical distribution system with multiple PV generations was used as case study. The research results indicated that the proposed method was effective in evaluating system operation risk and was helpful for system operators.