黄金期货合约中存在月份、周日效应和季节异常的检验:以土耳其为例

Yasemin Karataş Elçiçek
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在通过自回归移动平均模型(ARMA)(2,2)和广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH)(1,1)模型,检验2013年9月2日至2022年11月30日期间,伊斯坦布尔交易所衍生品市场(BIST-VIOP)交易的黄金期货合约收益是否存在月份效应、周数效应和季节异常。结果显示,检验黄金期货合约与星期效应关系的模型结果显示,除星期四外,其他交易日均为正收益,检验黄金期货合约与月份效应关系的模型结果显示,1月和3月均为正收益。从检验黄金期货合约与季节异常之间关系的模型中,除夏季外,其他季节的收益均为正且具有统计学意义。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Examination of the Existence of Month of the Year, Day Effect of the Week, and Seasonal Anomalies in Gold Futures Contracts: The Case of Turkey
This study aims to examine the existence of the month of the year effect, the day of the week effect, and seasonal anomalies in the return of gold futures contracts traded in the Borsa Istanbul Derivatives Market (BIST-VIOP) in the period of 02.09.2013 - 30.11.2022 through the Autoregressive Moving Average Models (ARMA)(2,2) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH)(1,1) model. According to the results, positive returns were found on other days except Thursday from the model examining the relationship between the gold futures contract and the day of the week effect, positive returns were found in January and March from the model results examining the relationship between the gold futures contract and the month of the year effect, and positive as well as statistically significant returns were found in other seasons except for summer from the model examining the relationship between the gold futures contract and seasonal anomalies.
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