基于人的可靠性分析的巨型飞盘风险评估研究

Lin Zhao
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引用次数: 3

摘要

本文运用认知可靠性和误差分析法对典型游乐设备——巨型飞盘进行了人的可靠性分析,以提高该设备的运行安全性。本研究通过对巨型飞盘的事故案例进行分析,运用任务分析法对机器操作过程进行任务分解,从而识别出人工操作的关键任务和可能存在的操作风险。本研究利用情境控制模型识别巨型飞盘各子任务的认知行为和认知功能,确定CPC水平、性能可靠性和权重因子。本文首先确定了各子任务的基本失效模式,然后计算出相应的失效概率。巨型飞盘完成任务失败的总体概率为0.12015,其中登机任务阶段是整个机器运行过程中风险最高的点。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Study on Giant Frisbee Risk Assessment Based on Human Reliability Analysis
The paper makes Human Reliability Analysis on a typical amusement ride - the Giant Frisbee by using Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method in order to help improve the safety in the operation of this machine. The study analyzes the accident cases of the Giant Frisbee and decomposes the task for the machine operation process by using Task Analysis Method so as to identify the key tasks operated by human and the possible operation risks. The study makes use of Contextual Control Model to identify cognitive behaviors and cognitive functions for each subtask of the Giant Frisbee and to determine CPC levels, performance reliability and weight factors. The paper identifies the basic failure modes of each subtask and then calculates the corresponding failure probability. The overall probability of the Giant Frisbee's failure to complete the task is 0.12015, where the boarding task stage is the point with highest risk throughout the machine operation.
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