能源-排放-气候关系的时间顺序定量全球目标,从2021年到2050年

Osama A. Marzouk
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本工作旨在组织国际能源署(IEA)和国际可再生能源署(IRENA)这两个国际组织设定的精选全球目标,形成通过加速向清洁能源消费过渡,阻止大气中二氧化碳(CO2)积累,达到二氧化碳净零排放的途径,从而减缓气候变化的速度。为了实现这一目标,本文讨论了三种能源排放-气候(EEC)展望情景,并按时间顺序列出了其中选定的目标,从2021年到2050年。这些目标中的大多数(总共54个)属于2030年(23个目标)和2050年(16个目标)。然而,2021年、2025年、2035年、2040年和2045年也有一个或多个目标。这里考虑的展望情景是:(1)IEA的2050年净零排放情景(NZE), (2) IEA的可持续发展情景(SDS),以及(3)IRENA的1.5°C情景。IEA-NZE和IRENA-1.5°C情景都意味着将全球温度升高限制在1.5°C,并在2050年实现全球二氧化碳净零排放。IEA-SDS情景没有那么严格,允许全球温度上升1.65°C,并将实现全球二氧化碳净零排放的最后期限推迟到2070年。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Chronologically-Ordered Quantitative Global Targets for the Energy-Emissions-Climate Nexus, from 2021 to 2050
This work aims to organize selected global targets set by the two international organizations: IEA (International Energy Agency) and IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency), to form pathways for stopping the accumulation of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, and for reaching a condition of net-zero CO2 emissions through accelerating the transition to clean-energy consumption, thereby decelerating the rate of climate change. In achieving this aim, three energy-emissions-climate (EEC) outlook scenarios are discussed and selected targets from them are listed here after being grouped chronologically, from 2021 to 2050. The majority of these targets (54 total) belong to the years 2030 (23 targets) and 2050 (16 targets). However, the years 2021, 2025, 2035, 2040, and 2045 have one or more targets as well. The outlook scenarios considered here are: (1) Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE) of IEA, (2) Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) of IEA, and (3) 1.5°C Scenario by IRENA. The IEA-NZE and IRENA-1.5°C scenarios both imply limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5°C, and reaching global net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050. The IEA-SDS scenario is less strict, allowing a slightly-higher global temperature increase of 1.65°C and having a later deadline of 2070 for reaching global net-zero CO2 emissions.
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