论辛普森悖论的出现频率和聚合陷阱

M. Cherikh
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引用次数: 0

摘要

辛普森悖论在统计学中是众所周知的,在处理社会、生命和医学科学的现实生活中也会出现,但在商学院社区中可能不那么为人所知,尤其是在商业统计入门课程中没有很好地涉及到。当来自两个或多个组的数据聚合到一个组中时,就会出现悖论。本文在商业环境中引入了辛普森悖论,并通过模拟表明,在不同的分布下,辛普森悖论虽然不是一个非常频繁的事件,但却是一个可信的事件。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
On the frequency of Simpson's paradox and the pitfalls of aggregation
Simpson's paradox is well known in statistics and arises in real-life situations dealing with social, life and medical sciences, but may not be that well known in business school communities, and especially not well covered in introductory business statistics courses. The paradox occurs when data from two or more groups is aggregated into a single group. This paper introduces Simpson's paradox in a business context and shows through simulations, under different distributions, that Simpson's paradox is a plausible event though not a very frequent one.
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