User Growth Model of Pinduoduo Based on SIR and Bass Model

This study investigates the proper model to predict Pinduoudo’s user growth model and the business meaning it contains. Two methods are used in this article: the first one is the Susceptible Infected Recovered model usually used to predict the development of a pandemic, the second one is the Bass model introduced by Frank Bass, which is frequently used to simulate the life cycle of durable products. The results show that the Bass model fits well during the whole developing process of Pinduoduo while SIR is only suitable for the company before its peak. Our finding discovers the Pinduoduo has a two-staged user developing model with a business model combined with traits from both the spread of virus and regular online and offline products, providing a proper prediction model for Pinduoduo’s user development as well as a new understanding of its business model for entrepreneurs and investors while filling the gap of this field of research.