评论

F. Smets
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摘要

全球化的影响和对最优货币政策的日益开放已成为迅速增长的文献的主题。在本文中,Richard Clarida使用Clarida, Gali和Gertler(2002)的新凯恩斯主义两国模型来部分解决这些问题。本文的研究重点是贸易开放程度。它没有解决金融全球化的影响,而金融全球化可以说是当前全球化浪潮的一个同样重要的特征。Clarida等人的模型已经成为研究两国货币政策相互作用的基准。这个模型非常优雅,可以准确地看到正在发生的事情。同时,它非常程式化,注重以贸易条件作为主要的国际传播渠道。国际风险分担被认为是完美的。在论文的第二部分,克拉里达对美联储最近的行为进行了实证分析。这个练习是基于Taylor(1993)使用“眼球计量经济学”的原始分析的精神。人们提出的主要问题是,泰勒规则是否适用于美联储最近的行为。克拉里达认为,全球化可能已经影响了一些必要的输入,以校准政策规则,如均衡实际利率和通胀预期。因此,他利用金融市场的预期数据来克服这个问题。这些期望度量应该不受中断和制度变化的影响,这可能会困扰使用前瞻性泰勒规则的力矩估计的传统工具广义方法。Clarida等人的模型提示了开放性如何影响泰勒规则中的最佳反应系数。因此,在本文的实证部分探讨其中的一些暗示将是有益的。然而,在第二部分中,封闭经济泰勒规则中的反应系数基本保持不变。开放如何影响产出缺口与通胀稳定的最优相对权重?在Clarida等人的风格化模型中。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Comment
The implications of globalization and increased openness for optimal monetary policy have been the subject of a rapidly growing literature. In this paper, Richard Clarida uses the New Keynesian two‐country model of Clarida, Gali, and Gertler (2002) to partly address such questions. The paper focuses on the degree of trade openness. It does not address the implications of financial globalization, which is arguably an equally important feature of the current wave of globalization. The Clarida et al.model has become a benchmark for studying the interaction of monetary policy in a two‐country world. The model is extremely elegant and allows seeing exactly what is going on. At the same time, it is very stylized, focusing on the terms of trade as the main international transmission channel. International risk sharing is assumed to be perfect. In the second part of the paper, Clarida then performs an empirical analysis of recent Fed behavior. This exercise is in the spirit of Taylor’s (1993) original analysis using “eyeball econometrics.” Themain question asked is whether the Taylor rule can fit recent Fed behavior. Clarida argues that globalizationmay have affected some of the necessary inputs for calibrating a policy rule such as the equilibrium real interest rate and expectations of inflation. He therefore uses expectations data from financial markets to overcome this problem. These expectations measures should be immune to breaks and changes in regime that may plague the use of traditional instrumental generalized method of moment estimation of forward‐looking Taylor rules. The Clarida et al. model gives hints about how openness may affect the optimal reaction coefficients in a Taylor rule. It would therefore be useful to explore some of those hints in the empirical part of the paper.However, in the second part the reaction coefficients in the closed‐economy Taylor rule are basically kept constant. How does openness affect the optimal relative weight on output gap versus inflation stabilization? In the stylized model of Clarida et al.
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