外国军事训练与政变État

J. Savage
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摘要

长期以来,人们一直担心外国军事训练可能会增加接收国军队的政变倾向。另一些人则希望,这种训练可以作为一种发展工具,帮助改善军队的规范观念,增加他们对文职控制的尊重。这种训练的主要目的很少是改善或恶化接受国的军民关系。相反,捐助国或供应国的目标通常是加强自身的安全和战略地位。如果在训练和军民关系之间存在关系,那么这些影响大多是二阶效应。对这一问题的学术研究经常反映出这种分歧,尽管许多人对任何影响都持怀疑态度。除了关于外军训练效果的理论差异外,实证结果也参差不齐。虽然一些研究发现了训练和政变之间的关系,但其他研究却发现了相反的结果。这些不同的结果可以归因于几个因素。首先,军民关系领域对军事教育和训练的总体效果缺乏扎实的经验认识,更不用说外国军事训练如何适应这种影响了。第二,理论论证缺乏适当的精细化。这可能导致经验模型的错误说明或构造有效性的失败。最后,大多数研究未能解释不同捐助者在不同政治背景下的异质效应。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Foreign Military Training and Coups d’État
There has long been concern that foreign military training could increase the coup propensity of recipient militaries. Alternatively, others have held the hope that such training could be used as a development tool to help improve the normative outlook of militaries and increase their respect for civilian control. The primary goal of such training is rarely to improve, or worsen for that matter, civil–military relations in the recipient state. Instead, donor or provider states are usually aiming to strengthen their own security and strategic positions. If there is a relationship between training and civil–military relations, these effects are mostly, then, second-order effects. The academic study of the issue has often reflected this divide, though many have been skeptical of any effect at all. Along with the theoretical differences regarding the effects of foreign military training, empirical results have been mixed. While some have found a relationship between training and coups, other studies have found the opposite. These divergent results can be attributed to a few factors. First, the field of civil–military relations lacks a solid empirical understanding of the effects of military education and training in general, let alone how foreign military training fits into this. Second, the theoretical arguments lack appropriate refinement. This has led to possible misspecification of empirical models or a failure of construct validity. Finally, most research has failed to account for heterogeneous effects from different donors in different political contexts.
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