设计一个基于社交广播的商业智能系统

Huaxia Rui, Andrew Whinston
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引用次数: 38

摘要

社交媒体的兴起从根本上改变了数字时代信息的生产、传播和消费方式,对经济和商业产生了深远的影响。在众多不同类型的社交媒体中,从商业角度来看,美国的Twitter和中国的“微博”等社交广播网络尤其有趣。以Twitter为例,大量的实时数据和极其丰富的文本,以及有价值的结构信息,使Twitter成为构建商业智能(BI)系统的绝佳平台。我们提出了一个基于社交广播的BI系统框架,该系统利用文本挖掘技术从这些数据中提取的实时信息。为了演示这个框架,我们设计并实现了一个基于twitter的BI系统,该系统可以预测首映周末的电影票房收入,并预测4周后的每日收入。我们发现,结合Twitter的信息可以将首映周末的平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)降低44%,总收入降低36%。对于每日收入预测,将Twitter信息纳入基线模型可以平均减少17.5%的预测误差。基于这些结果,我们得出结论,基于社交广播的商业智能系统具有巨大的潜力,值得研究人员和实践者共同探索。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Designing a social-broadcasting-based business intelligence system
The rise of social media has fundamentally changed the way information is produced, disseminated, and consumed in the digital age, which has profound economic and business effects. Among many different types of social media, social broadcasting networks such as Twitter in the U.S. and “Weibo” in China are particularly interesting from a business perspective. In the case of Twitter, the huge amounts of real-time data with extremely rich text, along with valuable structural information, makes Twitter a great platform to build Business Intelligence (BI) systems. We propose a framework of social-broadcasting-based BI systems that utilizes real-time information extracted from these data with text mining techniques. To demonstrate this framework, we designed and implemented a Twitter-based BI system that forecasts movie box office revenues during the opening weekend and forecasts daily revenue after 4 weeks. We found that incorporating information from Twitter could reduce the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) by 44% for the opening weekend and by 36% for total revenue. For daily revenue forecasting, including Twitter information into a baseline model could reduce forecasting errors by 17.5% on average. On the basis of these results, we conclude that social-broadcasting-based BI systems have great potential and should be explored by both researchers and practitioners.
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