模拟尼日利亚各州拉沙病暴发的传播动力学

S. Oluwafemi Oyamakin, Tolulope Samuel Adeyina
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引用次数: 0

摘要

采用非线性确定性模型研究拉沙热病毒的动态传播与控制。将人群分为易感人群、暴露人群、感染人群、移除人群、易感人群、暴露人群、感染人群等7个相互排斥的人群。确定了模型解的存在唯一性,导出了模型的基本再现数,采用新一代算子法对模型阈值参数进行了检验。验证了无病平衡点和地方性平衡点的存在性。模型结果表明,在Ro< 1时无病平衡是局部渐近稳定的,在Ro> 1时是不稳定的,模型是全局渐近稳定的。利用尼日利亚各州的数据,对模型参数进行了分析,以便确定关于疾病传播的最敏感参数。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Modeling the Transmission Dynamics of LASSA Outbreaks in Nigeria States
A nonlinear deterministic model was considered to study the dynamics transmission and control of LASSA fever virus. The total population was divided into seven mutually exclusive classes between human and rodents as susceptible human, exposed humans, infected human, removed human, susceptible rodents, exposed rodents and infected rodents. Existence and uniqueness of the solution of the model were determined, the basic reproduction number is derived the model threshold parameter was examined using next-generation operator method. The existence of disease-free equilibrium point and endemic equilibrium point was carried out. The model result shows that diseases free equilibrium is local asymptotically stable at Ro< 1 and unstable at Ro> 1, the model is globally asymptotically stable. analysis of the model parameters was carried out in order to identify the most sensitive parameters on the disease transmission using data from the Nigeria States.
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