阿根廷案例中的公共和外国投资支出。1960-2015年结构性断裂的协整分析

Miguel Ramírez
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摘要

本文考察了公共投资支出和外来直接投资(FDI)是否提高了阿根廷的劳动生产率增长。利用年度数据,它估算了1960-2015年期间的动态劳动生产率函数,该函数包含了公共和私人投资支出、教育支出、劳动力和出口增长的影响。它对单断和双断单位根检验进行了检验,并对1960-2015年期间内生决定的制度转移进行了协整检验。协整分析表明,相关变量之间存在长期关系。误差修正(EC)模型表明,公共投资支出和教育的(滞后)增长对劳动生产率增长率有积极而显著的影响。此外,该模型的估计时间较短(1970-2015年),以捕捉外国直接投资流入的影响。估计表明(滞后的)外国直接投资流量对劳动生产率的增长有积极和显著的影响,而劳动力的增加有消极的影响。从政策角度来看,研究结果对许多拉丁美洲国家(包括阿根廷)在20世纪90年代和21世纪初采取的政治权宜之计提出了质疑,这些国家不成比例地减少了教育和基础设施方面的公共资本支出,以满足财政赤字占GDP比例的降低。研究结果进一步支持旨在促进公共投资支出和吸引外国直接投资流入的促进投资和促进增长政策。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Public and Foreign Investment Spending in the Argentine Case. A Cointegration Analysis with Structural Breaks, 1960-2015.
This paper examines whether public investment spending and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) enhance labor productivity growth in Argentina. Using annual data, it estimates a dynamic labor productivity function for the 1960-2015 period that incorporates the impact of public and private investment spending, education expenditures, the labor force, and export growth. It tests for both single and two-break unit root tests, as well as performing cointegration tests with an endogenously determined regime shift over the 1960-2015 period. Cointegration analysis suggests that a long-term relationship exists among the relevant variables. The error correction (EC) models suggest that (lagged) increases in public investment spending and education have a positive and significant effect on the rate of labor productivity growth Also, the model is estimated for a shorter period (1970-2015) to capture the impact of inward FDI flows. The estimates suggest that (lagged) FDI flows have a positive and significant impact on labor productivity growth, while increases in the labor force have a negative effect. From a policy standpoint, the findings call into question the politically expedient policy in many Latin American countries, including Argentina during the 1990s and 2000s, of disproportionately reducing public capital expenditures on education and infrastructure to meet reductions in the fiscal deficit as a proportion of GDP. The results give further support to pro-investment and pro-growth policies designed to promote public investment spending and attract inward FDI flows.
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