Predictability of Bar Exam Outcomes: A Logistic Regression Analysis

The paper determined the relationship of the Law Aptitude Score (LAS), Mock bar score and the General Weighted Average (GWA) to determine probability of passing the bar exams. The study covered the period 2009-2011. The study revealed that LAS and mock bar score do not have statistical influence in passing the bar examination while the GPA bear strong significance on the probability of passing. However, this study finds significant causal importance of LAS and GPA, that is, LAS would determine the kind of students joining the law school while the GPA determines the readiness of the graduates to pass the bar. Probability estimation to pass the bar employing the personal attributes revealed a 10.61% success rate, while 89.39% was attributable to the institution.