Pauvreté et Covid -19 : vers la nécessité d’une refonte de la vie économique malgache

Having emerged in China in the city of Wuhan at the end of 2019, COVID-19 has become a pandemic in less than two months with more than 660,000 dead and over 17,000,000 sick worldwide. Still unknown to the scientific epidemiological world, lockdown has been the main preventive measure to stop its spread. Faced with the complications of pandemic response, countries with very few resources are left on their own. This work attempts to make a modeled analysis of the economic and social conditions facing the COVID-19 pandemic with a view to drawing lessons in the future. The method used a simplified mathematical prosperity coefficient model with the HDI, informal sector, disciplinary compliance, to determine the scope of lockdown and the speed of the virus spread. It was concluded that the conditions in which Madagascar is located do not allow it to cope with the pandemic independently. This is confirmed by the vital need to find help, among other things, for medical equipment and the necessary inputs for testing. The model demonstrated that the low level of HDI, the formal sector and the low level of discipline have negatively affected the scope of lockdown. It is therefore recommended that in the future, the State should redefine the system of wealth creation and administration, with more protective and resilient social policies to ensure existential ambition.