Oil Prices and Exchange Rates: Measurement Matters

This paper examines the relevancy of price measurement for characterizing the relation between real oil prices and real exchange rates. The current empirical literature shows a consensus on using the U.S. CPI to deflate the nominal oil price simply because of its numerous advantages. However, reliance on the U.S. CPI assumes that the worldwide alternative to a barrel of oil is the U.S. consumption basket. There are, however, alternative baskets, and I consider two: the price of gold and the IMF Global Commodity Price Index. Inspection of the results reveals that the relation between real oil prices and real exchange rates is sensitive to the choice of deflator for the price of oil and to the use of effective or bilateral exchange rates. Specifically, using the IMF’s Global Commodity Price Index as a deflator reveals that real oil prices and real exchange rates (effective or bilateral) are clustered along a long-run relation with unitary elasticity. Further, this choice of deflator has the lowest forecast errors. To be sure, much work remains to be completed along the lines of measurement and estimation methods. However, extending the results of this paper will emphasize its main point—namely, that measurement matters.