城市交通事故中行人死亡影响因素建模与分析

Ahmet Tortum, Alireza Motamadnia
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要城乡交通事故的性质在某些因素乃至严重程度上都存在着差异,损害率、致残率、致人死亡等。在本研究中,我们采用统计方法和二元logistic回归模型,对受伤行人死亡途中(事故现场或医院)的年龄、性别、受教育程度、行人着装颜色、事故季节、事故时间、车辆与行人相撞的速度和事故发生时的路面状况等重要参数进行了分析。在建立二元logistic回归模型后,确定只有车速和事故时间参数在小于5%的水平上具有显著性。年龄、性别、事故发生季节、行人着装颜色、路面状况、文化程度等参数对机动车行人事故死亡率的统计影响不显著。结果表明,通过采取与交通镇定、注意通道照明和亮度相关的决策,可以降低行人因城市事故而导致的死亡率。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Modeling and Analyzing the Factors Affecting the Mortality of Pedestrians in Urban Accidents
Abstract The nature of urban and rural accidents has been different from each other in some of the factors and even the severity of damage rate, mayhem, and death. In this research, using statistical methods and binary logistic regression model, we have addressed to analyze important parameters such as age, gender, education level, the color of the pedestrian dress, season of accident, time of accident, the speed of the vehicle colliding with pedestrians and road surface conditions at the time of accident on the way of death (at the scene of the incident or in the hospital) pedestrians who have been traumatized. After the creation of the binary logistic regression model, it was determined that only the parameters of speed and the accident time have been significant in the level less than 5%. And other parameters such as age, gender, the season of accident occurrence, the color of the pedestrian dress, road surface conditions and education level had no significant effect in terms of statistical on the incidence of mortality arising from a pedestrian accident with the motor vehicle. The results revealed that by adopting decisions related to the traffic calming, attention to passages lighting and brightness the mortality rate of a pedestrian due to the urban accidents can be reduced.
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