欧元区“债务”危机:金融全球化下的另一场“中心”—“外围”危机?

A. O’connell
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摘要

本文从金融全球化复燃的近40年来中心与边缘关系的经验出发,对欧元危机进行了分析。这场危机显示了发展中国家许多其他危机中明显的特征模式:即大规模跨境资金流动的“繁荣”和“萧条”阶段,由来自中心的“推动”因素主导。处于中心地位的金融机构发挥着至关重要的作用。“繁荣”阶段导致外围经济体的严重失衡——它们之间的竞争力丧失——以“突然停止”结束,给过度暴露的债权人带来严重问题,然后向本国政府寻求救助。这篇论文表明,“中心”债权人机构主要是在国际金融市场上为自己融资,因此它们的贷款——为支出提供购买力——与国与国之间的储蓄转移关系不大。因此,当“突然停止”到来时,问题不在于将储蓄返还给这些机构的可怜储户,而在于将这些机构从对“外围”陷入困境的借款人的巨额敞口中解脱出来。一种“三角纾困”过程,一种“旋转门”策略,已经成为惯例,在这种策略下,不是中央政府公开救助它们的金融机构,而是官方机构以新债的形式向借债政府提供部分债务服务。对它们来说,要在财政盈余(由通缩性紧缩政策产生)这一极其棘手的负担上再添一笔,就必须避免将“未偿还”的巨额贷款登记为“不良”贷款。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Eurozone 'Debt' Crisis: Another 'Center' – 'Periphery' Crisis Under Financial Globalization?
This paper analyzes the Euro crisis in light of the experience of center-periphery relations over the last 40 years of renewed financial globalization. The crisis shows the characteristic pattern evident in so many other crises in the developing world: i.e. “boom” and “bust” phases of cross-border financial flows of massive magnitude, dominated by “push” factors from the center. Financial institutions at the center play a crucial role. The “boom” phase leads to serious imbalances in the peripheral economies - losses of competitiveness among them – ending in a “sudden-stop” that poses acute problems for the overexposed creditors, which then turn to their own governments for bailouts.The paper shows that “center” creditor institutions largely fund themselves in international financial markets so that their lending – providing purchasing power to finance spending – has little to do with country to country transfers of savings. When the “sudden-stop” arrives the problem therefore is not that of returning savings to the poor depositors in those institutions but of extricating them from their large exposure to borrowers in difficulties in the “periphery”. A “triangular bail-out” process, a “revolving-door” strategy, has become conventional under which instead of governments in the center openly bailing out their financial houses, official institutions provide some fraction of the debt service to borrowing governments in the form of new debt, for them to add to the extremely demanding burden of fiscal surpluses – arising from deflationary austerity policies – needed to avoid having to register as “non-performing” a menacing volume of credits “outstanding”.
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