富国岛雨量趋势分析

Nguyen Tri Quang Hung, Le Xuan Hien
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引用次数: 0

摘要

评估富国岛的雨量变化趋势是一个有趣的课题,它为雨量预测趋势和区域发展规划奠定了科学基础。利用1985 - 2018年降水测量资料,采用Sen’s slope、线性回归、Mann-Kendall (MK)检验、变异系数(CV)、降水浓度指数(PCI)等分析方法;利用SPI标准化降雨指数考察干旱程度随时间的变化。结果表明,根据线性回归分析,区域年降雨量波动不大,雨季和年降雨量呈减少趋势,而旱季降雨量呈增加趋势。根据Sen的斜率图,7月的降雨量增加最多,而8月的降雨量减少最多。总体而言,降水浓度指数显示存在高和非常高的降水浓度。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Trend Analysis of Rainfall in the Phu Quoc Island
Assess the trend of rainfall change in Phu Quoc island is an interesting topic which establishes a scientific basis for rainfall forecast trends as well as regional development planning. Rainfall measurement data from 1985 to 2018 was used to analyse with different methods included Sen’s slope, linear regression, Mann-Kendall (MK) test, CV coefficient (Coefficient of Variation), PCI (Precipitation Concentration Index); examine drought level over time by using SPI - standardized rainfall index. Results show that, according to the linear regression analysis, regional annual rainfall is not much fluctuated, the rainy season and annual rainfall tend to decrease, while rainfall in the dry season tends to increase. According to Sen’s slope chart, July rain gains highest increasement, while that of August tends to decrease most. In general, the precipitation concentration index revealed the presence of a high and very high concentration of rainfall.  
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