数字化背景下的俄罗斯电力工业模型分析

I. Grachev, S. Larin, N. Baranova
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摘要

——俄罗斯电力部门改革已进入最后阶段。然而,它们的实施效果也不尽人意,比如所谓的“优订单定价”(MOP)和“产能粘合合同”(CAC)机制的使用。这些机制的目的是通过从均衡市场价值提高供电价格来维持现有和新建的非竞争性电站的业务。然而,这些机制的使用给俄罗斯的经济发展带来了严重的问题。如果将这些机制作为一个整体来考虑,那么它们通过提高供电电价有助于提高部门内的能源效率,同时,它们也极大地限制了其他行业的经济增长机会。这是由于供电价格的上涨必然导致其产出价格的上涨。供电价格上涨10%,导致经济放缓。本文分析了俄罗斯电力行业准市场定价的边际制度。数字化背景下经济市场参与者活动的基本模型是在先前构建的经济系统动态概率模型的基础上发展起来的。其应用证明了优序定价对经济系统的负面影响。要更好地解决这一问题,维护电力行业的无效经济主体,不应采用准市场方式,而应采用多种财政直接支持的方式,同时保持供电价格的市场化
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Model Analysis of the Russian Electric Power Industry in the Context of Digitalization
—Reforms in the Russian electricity power sector are entering the final stages. However, there are also unsatisfactory results of their implementation along with the positive ones such as the use of the mechanisms of the so-called " merit order pricing" (MOP) and "capacity adhesion contract" (CAC). These mechanisms are aimed at maintaining the operations of existing and construction of new non-competitive stations by increasing the supplied electricity price from its equilibrium market value. However, the use of these mechanisms creates a serious problem for the Russian economic development. If one considers these mechanisms in the power as a whole, then they contribute to the energy efficiency within the sector through supplied electricity price increase, and, at the same time, they significantly limit the opportunities for economic growth for other industries. This is due to the fact that the supplied electricity price hike entails the need to increase prices for their output. The increase in the supplied electricity price of even by 10% leads to the slowdown in economy. The article analyzes the marginal system of quasi-market pricing in the Russian power industry. A basic model of the activity of economic market participants in the context of digitalization has been developed on the basis of the previously constructed dynamic probabilistic model of economic systems. Its application has proven the negative impact of merit order pricing on the economic system. A better way of handling this and maintaining ineffective economic entities in the power industry, various methods of direct budgetary support while maintaining the market price for supplied electricity should be used instead of using quasi-market
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