A Workflow for Probabilistic Calibration of Models of Left Atrial Electrophysiology

Atrial fibrillation is an increasingly common condition. Computational models that describe left atrial electrophysiology have the potential to be used to guide interventions such as catheter ablation. Calibration of these models to faithfully represent left atrial structure and function in a particular patient is challenging because electrophysiology observations obtained in the clinical setting are typically sparse and noisy, and can be difficult to register to a mesh obtained from imaging. Probabilistic approaches show promise as a way to obtain personalised models while taking account of noise, sparseness, and uncertainty. We have developed a workflow in which parameter fields are represented as Gaussian processes, and the posterior distribution is inferred using MCMC. Our workflow has been tested using synthetic data, generated from simulations where the spatial variation in model parameters is known, and we have shown that both features and parameters can be recovered from simulated sparse measurements.