QRA中不确定性建模的尾部效应

Proceedings of 3rd International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis and Annual Conference of the North American Fuzzy Information Processing Society Pub Date : 1995-03-17 DOI:10.1109/ISUMA.1995.527682

M. Maes, L. Huyse

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引用次数: 6

摘要

本文讨论了工程师和科学家在为控制风险或可靠性分析的基本不确定性假设概率模型时所经历的一般不安感。具体地说，尾部行为的方面得到了解决。众所周知，定量风险估计严重依赖于尾部行为。本文主要研究了基本不确定性的尾重和尾重对总体风险或失效概率的影响。这对基于模型的风险分析和结构可靠性分析都很重要。本文包括两个示例来说明所介绍的一些概念。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Tail effects of uncertainty modeling in QRA

The paper discusses the general feeling of uneasiness engineers and scientists experience when they assume probability models for basic uncertainties governing a risk or reliability analysis. Specifically, the aspect of tail behaviour is addressed. It is well known that quantitative risk estimation is critically dependent on the tail behavior. The present paper focuses an tail heaviness and the effect of tail heaviness of basic uncertainties on the overall risk or failure probability. This is of interest to a model-based risk analysis as well as a structural reliability analysis. Two examples are included to illustrate some of the concepts introduced.

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Proceedings of 3rd International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis and Annual Conference of the North American Fuzzy Information Processing Society

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