Inflation Expectations in Turkey: Evidence from Panel Data

We investigated the rationality of financial and real sectors’ CPI inflation expectations in Turkey using the multivariate panel cointegration method. The use of panel techniques strengthened our empirical results by not only increasing sample size but also allowing heterogeneity across groups of respondents. Having found the expectations irrational in the stricter sense, we proceeded to analyze the significance of both past and future inflation rates as determinants of agents’ future inflation forecasts. Both recursive and rolling estimates show that forecasters’ weight on future/target inflation rates versus past actual and expected inflation rates changes over time as unexpected shocks derail inflation from its disinflationary path. Lastly, we find asymmetry in expectations such that the response of inflation expectations to an increase in the inflation rate is twice the size of the response to a decrease in the inflation rate. This may indicate long delays in restoring credibility of central banks after a positive shock on the inflation rate. JEL Classifications: C23, D84, E31 Keywords: Inflation expectations, Inflation formation, Panel cointegration, Recursive regression