开采还是交易?比特币交易与挖矿市场的实证研究

InfoSciRN: Other Special Libraries & Librarianship (Sub-Topic) Pub Date : 2021-02-01 DOI:10.2139/ssrn.3776923

Chen Jin, Bowen Lou, Jiding Zhang

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引用次数: 0

摘要

问题定义:最近比特币价格的飙升提高了人们对比特币投资的兴趣。然而，面对挖矿和交易的投资选择，投资者的行为并不清晰，需要对比特币交易市场和挖矿市场进行更仔细的审视。具体来说，人们对这两个市场相互作用的模式知之甚少。由于挖矿在很大程度上决定了比特币系统运行的可靠性和安全性，因此了解交易市场是否会影响挖矿投资是很重要的。学术/实践意义:我们的研究弥合了运营管理、金融和信息技术之间的差距，并为加密货币系统的运营和经济学研究做出了贡献。方法:利用大量的数据集，我们的实证研究揭示了交易所市场对采矿市场的因果影响。具体而言，我们制定了一个包含比特币交易市场、汇率和流动性关键维度的实证框架，并共同模拟了以比特币矿机供需为特征的挖矿市场的进入和退出。该框架还考虑了一套整体的需求和供应转移因素，这些因素从外部改变了比特币挖矿市场的投资行为。结果:我们实证表明，人们倾向于将比特币估值越高与比特币汇率越高联系在一起，并且比特币汇率对矿机的供给和需求都有显著影响。此外，我们证明了比特币交易市场可以替代比特币挖矿市场进行投资。对于那些潜在进入比特币挖矿市场的投资者来说，这种替代效应尤为明显。管理意义:我们的研究揭示了比特币交易所对比特币挖矿活动的影响，这有助于比特币系统的运作。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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To Mine or to Trade? An Empirical Study of Bitcoin Exchange and Mining Markets

Problem Definition: The recent upsurge in Bitcoin prices has raised interest in the investment of Bitcoin. However, faced with the investment options of mining and trading, the behavior of investors is not clear and requires a closer scrutiny of both the Bitcoin exchange market and the mining market. Specifically, little is known about the pattern of the interaction of the two markets. As mining significantly determines the reliability and security of the operation of the Bitcoin system, it’s important to understand whether the trading market can influence the investment in mining.

Academic/Practical Relevance: Our research bridges the gap between operation management, finance and information technology, and makes contribution to studies in the operations and economics of cryptocurrency systems.

Methodology: Using a variety of datasets at a large scale, our empirical study uncovers the causal impact of the exchange market on the mining market. Specifically, we formulate an empirical framework that encompasses key dimensions of the Bitcoin exchange market, exchange rate and liquidity, and also jointly models the entry and exit of the mining market characterized by supply and demand of Bitcoin mining rigs. The framework also accounts for a holistic set of demand and supply shifters that exogenously alter the investment behavior in the Bitcoin mining market.

Results: We empirically show people tend to associate a higher valuation of Bitcoin with a higher Bitcoin exchange rate, and such exchange rate has significant impacts on both the supply and demand of the mining rigs. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the Bitcoin exchange market serves as a substitute for the Bitcoin mining market for investment. This substitution effect is particularly pronounced to those investors as potential entrants to the Bitcoin mining market.

Managerial Implications: Our study sheds light on the impact of the Bitcoin exchanges on the Bitcoin mining activities which contribute to the operation of the Bitcoin system.

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