Growth with Moderation and Uncertainty

With heightened uncertainties and moderating global and Western European growth and oil prices, and volatile capital flows, Russia is likely to grow by 4.2 percent in 2010, followed by 4.5 percent in 2011 and 3.5 percent in 2012 as domestic demand expands in line with gradual improvements in the labor and credit markets. Unemployment situation is likely to get worse before it gets better later in 2011. Fiscal risks have risen with likely expenditure pressures and downside risks to oil. While there is huge diversity across regions in the patterns of labor market recovery, smaller regions with a larger share of SMEs, better investment climate, more FDI, and stronger financial sector presence tend to show a more robust recovery.