考虑内生增长的综合评价模型

Michael Hübler, Lavinia Baumstark, Marian Leimbach, O. Edenhofer, N. Bauer
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引用次数: 45

摘要

我们将内源性定向技术变革引入气候与发展政策综合数值评估。我们区分了创新(研发)支出和模仿(国际技术溢出)支出,并考虑了资本投资在创造和实施新技术中的作用。我们的主要贡献是校准和数值求解模型,并检查模型的灵敏度。作为一项应用,我们评估了基于碳预算的气候政策,并改变了节能技术转让的开始。因此,中国是早期技术转让的主要受益者。在此,我们的研究结果强调了及时的国际技术转让对于有效实现全球排放目标的重要性。来自内生增长的大部分消费收益都包含在基线中。此外,减缓成本对大多数内生增长参数的变化不敏感。然而,相对于用于创新和模仿的特定能源支出而言,更高的效率降低了缓解成本。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
An Integrated Assessment Model with Endogenous Growth
We introduce endogenous directed technical change into numerical integrated climate and development policy assessment. We distinguish expenditures on innovation (R&D) and imitation (international technology spillovers) and consider the role of capital investment in creating and implementing new technologies. Our main contribution is to calibrate and numerically solve the model and to examine the model's sensitivity. As an application, we assess a carbon budget-based climate policy and vary the beginning of energy-saving technology transfer. Accordingly, China is a main beneficiary of early technology transfer. Herein, our results highlight the importance of timely international technology transfer for efficiently meeting global emission targets. Most of the consumption gains from endogenous growth are captured in the baseline. Moreover, mitigation costs turn out to be insensitive to changes in most of the parameters of endogenous growth. A higher effectivity of energy-specific relative to labor-specific expenditures on innovation and imitation reduces mitigation costs, though.
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