全球金融危机与经济一体化

Lukman Hakim
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引用次数: 1

摘要

2008年,东盟10个成员国批准了《东盟宪章》。这是为了重申成员国在2015年前建立东盟自由贸易区的承诺。东盟成员国必须做好经济和非经济方面的准备,以面对这个时代。然而,全球金融危机可能是实施东盟自由贸易区的主要障碍。在本研究中,我们试图确定全球金融危机如何可能影响东盟国家之间的区域经济一体化的创建。本研究基于牛顿的经济区域范式,即引力模型。引力模型探讨了许多地区或国家之间的经济关系。引力模型的核心属性是出口、GDP、人口和国家间距离。我们将使用面板数据方法来执行模型。然后利用核心引力模型对经济一体化的可能性进行了分析。接下来,我们将外汇市场压力(EMP)作为金融危机指标纳入核心重力模型,以确定金融危机对东盟五国经济一体化的影响。结果表明,EMP对东盟五国经济一体化具有负向影响。总体而言,报告的结果表明,经济一体化是有可能在东盟五国实施的。但是,全球金融危机将对经济一体化的实施构成威胁。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Global Financial Crisis and Economic Integration
The ASEAN Charter has been ratified by the ten member countries of ASEAN in 2008. This is to reaffirm the commitment of the member countries to the establishment of the ASEAN free trade area by 2015. The ASEAN members must prepare themselves with the economic and non economics aspects to be ready facing this era. Nevertheless, the global financial crisis could be a major hindrance to the implementation of the ASEAN free trade area. In this study, we attempt to determine how the global financial crisis could possibly affect the creation of the regional economic integration among ASEAN countries. The study based on Newtonian paradigm on economic regional or namely the gravity model. Gravity model explored the economic relation of the many regions or countries. The core properties of gravity model are export, GDP, population and distance inters countries. We will use the panel data method to execute the model. This followed by the analysis of the possibility of the economics integration using the core gravity model. Next, we will incorporate the Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) as the financial crisis index to the core gravity model, to determine the influence of financial crisis in ASEAN-5’s economic integration. The result indicate EMP giving negative effect on ASEAN-5’s economic integration. In overall result reported here indicate that economic integration is possible to implement on ASEAN-5 countries. But, the global financial crisis will be threat implementation of the economic integration.
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