Profit Shifting and Tax - Rate Uncertainty

We demonstrate the importance for the potency of profit shifting activity of risk factors related to macroeconomic and fiscal stability in countries where multinational subsidiaries reside. Using firm-level data for 1,241 parent firms from 24 countries and 12,698 subsidiaries in 43 countries, we first identify prevalent profit-shifting in periods (or subsidiaries’ countries) with low macroeconomic risk. Subsequently, we show that even in periods of low macroeconomic risk, profit-shifting is stronger to subsidiaries in countries with stable corporate tax rates over time (low fiscal-risk countries). We contend that especially low fiscal risk is a prerequisite for identifying significant profit-shifting.