信息设计和对市场基本面的敏感性

Pedro Guinsburg
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摘要

我研究了在参与战略决策之前,以布莱克威尔实验的形式向彼此公开披露可验证信息的公司的问题。设计的信号既可以解释为统计报告,也可以解释为物理量的切片,即市场细分。在世界的状态被实现之前,企业选择一个信号政策,一种估计技术,关于一个私人个体的支付状态,然后被迫公布调查结果,所有其他企业在参与价格或数量竞争之前。由于信号是公开的,当公司试图评估公司的个人收益时,它最终也会向对手透露同样的信息。全面披露使公司能够适应当地市场的基本面,而代价是向竞争对手泄露关键信息。另一方面,《部分启示》让公司对世界的真实状态做出了宽松的决策,但使他们能够采取积极的排除政策,增加玩家行动的有利分布频率。部分启示作为一种承诺手段,阻止进入竞争市场,导致决策对当地基本面不敏感,而当竞争对手的概况在整个市场上是恒定的,或者当公司不能通过或多或少的信息披露来影响竞争对手的广泛利润进入决策时,分散决策是一种主导策略。由于去中心化是将决策与当地市场基本面联系起来的一种方式,并且在世界的多个状态中运行单一政策是一种避免竞争的承诺手段,因此我描述了在行动分布的承诺与与世界状态的相关性之间的权衡。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Information Design and Sensitivity to Market Fundamentals
I study the problem of firms that disclose verifiable information to each other publicly, in the form of Blackwell Experiments, before engaging in strategic decisions. The signals designed can be either interpreted as statistical reports or as slices of physical quantities, i.e. market segments. Before the state of the world is realized, firms choose a signal policy, an estimation technique, about a private individual payoff state and then are forced to publicize the results of the investigations to all other firms before engaging in price or quantity competition. Because signals are made public, when a firm tries to assess the firm's individual payoff, it also ends up revealing the same information to her opponents. Full Disclosure enables companies to adapt to local market fundamentals at the expense of releasing crucial information to the competitors. On the other hand, Partial Revelation makes companies loose optimality of the decisions with regards to the true state of the world but enable them to commit to an aggressive policy of preclusion that increases the frequency of a favorable distribution of players actions. Whereas Partial Revelation acts as a commitment device and preclude entry in otherwise competitive markets, inducing insensitivity of the decisions with respect to local fundamentals, decentralized decision making is a dominant strategy when the profile of competitors is constant across markets or when a company cannot influence the extensive margin entry decision of the competitor with more or less disclosure of information. Since decentralization acts as a way to correlate decisions with local market fundamentals, and running one single policy in multiple states of the world acts as a commitment device to avoid competitors, I describe a trade off between commitment over a distribution of actions versus correlation with states of the world.
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