过去50年可靠性理论的先驱

Alice Rueda, M. Pawlak
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引用次数: 16

摘要

本文谨向近50年来在可靠性理论方面所作出的贡献致敬。本文概述了可靠性理论的先驱,以及他们的工作如何对我们今天的可靠性分析产生重大影响。这也是一篇关于可靠性理论和方法的综述性论文。本文提供的信息主要基于第一手文献,以提供尽可能多的中立观点。然而,部分信息来自参考文献1-4。对可靠性分析感兴趣的领域包括可靠性参数的表示、更新理论、连贯结构、基于图的模型、理论方法和其他杂项技术。基于图的模型包括框图、故障树分析(FTA)、事件树分析和流程图。理论方法包括排队论、渐近分析、布尔代数、贝叶斯方法、蒙特卡罗模拟、优化技术等。还提供了不能归类于任何类别的各种方法。回顾上个世纪,可靠性研究的许多贡献都是在过去50年里完成的。威布尔、爱泼斯坦和索贝尔对我们今天使用的分布函数产生了重大影响。Lotka、Campbell、Feller、Cox、Smith、Barlow、Proschan、Hunter、Marshall、Esary、gendenko、Belyaev和Solov'yev都提出了可靠性理论。Takacs关于逗留时间的论文为渐近研究提供了一个开端。Birnbaum开始了一个关于连贯结构的成分重要性测量的整个家庭。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Pioneers of the reliability theories of the past 50 years
This paper is dedicated to all the researchers for their contributions in reliability theories in the past 50 years. The paper provides a summary on the pioneers of reliability theories, and how their works placed a great influence on our reliability analysis today. This is also a survey paper on reliability theories and methods. The information provided in this paper is mostly based on literatures found first hand to provide as much a neutral view as possible. However, some of the information is adopted from Refs. 1-4. Area of interest in the reliability analysis included representation of reliability parameters, renewal theory, coherent structure, diagram-based models, theoretical methods, and other miscellaneous techniques. Diagram based models included block diagrams, fault tree analysis (FTA), event tree analysis, and flowgraphs. Theoretical methods included queueing theory, asymptotic analysis, Boolean algebra, Bayesian method, Monte Carlo simulation, optimization techniques. Miscellaneous methods that cannot be classified in any of the categories are also provided. Looking back in the last century, a lot of the contributions to reliability research were done in the last 50 years. Weibull, Epstein and Sobel had made a significant influence on the distribution functions we used today. Lotka, Campbell, Feller, Cox, Smith, Barlow, Proschan, Hunter, Marshall, Esary, Gnedenko, Belyaev, and Solov'yev had advanced the theories for reliability. Takacs' paper in sojourn time provided an initiative to the asymptotic studies. Birnbaum started a whole family on component importance measure for coherent structure.
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