PENILAIAN HARGA WAJAR SAHAM MENGGUNAKAN METODE DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW

ABSTRAK Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menunjukkan harga wajar saham PT Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk (ACES) periode 2022 hingga 2027. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui posisi perusahaan apakah undervalued atau overvalued. Apabila posisi saham undervalued maka investor dapat mengambil keputusan membeli sahamnya dan sebaliknya apabila posisi overvalued maka investor dapat melakukan penjualan saham.  Penelitian ini menggunakan metode perhitungan discounted cash flow. Metode analisis saham penelitian ini adalah bottom up yakni dengan memilih saham perusahaan terlebih dahulu, selanjutnya melakukan analisis fundamental yakni harga wajar saham, kemudian analisis pasar dan analisis makro. Namun penelitian ini hanya melakukan analisis fundamental. Hasil penelitian dari perhitungan harga wajar ACES sebesar Rp 378,27 dan harga sekarang Rp 468, artinya intrinsik price lebih kecil dari current price maka posisi ACES overvalued artinya keputusan investasi menjual saham. Meskipun metode DCF mempertimbangkan pertumbuhan bisnis (growth rate) dimasa mendatang, namun tetap perlu melakukan analisis pasar dan analisis makro untuk memastikan apakah dilakukan pembelian atau penjualan saham.Kata-kata Kunci: Discounted Cash Flow; under valued; over valued; saham; keputusan investasi   ASSESSMENT OF FAIR PRICE OF SHARES USING THE DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW METHOD ABSTRACT  This research aims to show the fair price of PT Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk (ACES) shares for the period 2022 to 2027. This research was conducted to determine whether the company's position is undervalued or overvalued. If the stock position is undervalued, investors can make decisions to buy their shares, and vice versa. If the position is overvalued, investors can sell shares. This study uses the discounted cash flow calculation method. The method of stock analysis in this research is bottom-up, namely by selecting company shares first, then carrying out fundamental analysis, namely fair stock prices, then market analysis and macro analysis. However, this study only performs a fundamental analysis. The research results from the calculation of ACES's fair price of IDR 378.27 and the current price of IDR 468, meaning that the intrinsic price is smaller than the current price, then ACES's position is overvalued, meaning the investment decision to sell shares. Although the DCF method considers future business growth (growth rate), it is still necessary to carry out market analysis and macro analysis to ascertain whether shares are being bought or sold.Key Words: Discounted Cash Flow; Under valued; Over valued; share; Investation decision