混合决策策略下选择行为分析的遗传算法

Jella Pfeiffer, D. Duzevik, Franz Rothlauf, Koichi Yamamoto
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引用次数: 5

摘要

在决策领域,如何揭示人的选择行为是一个基本问题。虽然选择本身通常是可以观察到的,但我们决定这些选择的潜在决策策略并没有完全被理解。以往的研究定义了许多决策策略,并推测人们在决策过程中不会只使用一种策略,而是会切换策略。据我们所知,后一种猜想缺乏经验证据。这就是为什么我们监控了624名在线购物消费者的购买决策。我们研究有多少观察到的选择可以用现有策略的纯粹形式来解释,有多少决定可以解释,如果我们考虑切换行为,并详细调查切换行为。由于考虑切换导致可能的混合决策策略的搜索空间很大,我们应用遗传算法来寻找最能解释观察到的行为的混合决策策略集。结果表明,混合策略的使用频率高于纯策略,四种混合策略可以解释4种选择情景下93.9%的选择,7种选择情景下75.4%的选择。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A genetic algorithm for analyzing choice behavior with mixed decision strategies
In the field of decision-making a fundamental problem is how to uncover people's choice behavior. While choices them- selves are often observable, our underlying decision strategies determining these choices are not entirely understood. Previous research defined a number of decision strategies and conjectured that people do not apply only one strategy but switch strategies during the decision process. To the best of our knowledge, empirical evidence for the latter conjecture is missing. This is why we monitored the purchase decisions 624 consumers shopping online. We study how many of the observed choices can be explained by the existing strategies in their pure form, how many decisions can be explained if we account for switching behavior, and investigate switching behavior in detail. Since accounting for switching leads to a large search space of possible mixed decision strategies, we apply a genetic algorithm to find the set of mixed decision strategies which best explains the observed behavior. The results show that mixed strategies are used more often than pure ones and that a set of four mixed strategies is able to explain 93.9% of choices in a scenario with 4 alternatives and 75.4% of choices in a scenario with 7 alternatives.
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