Predictability of a tornado environment index from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation

Abstract. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates severe thunderstorm activity in the US, with increased activity expected during La Niña conditions. There is also evidence that severe thunderstorm activity is influenced by the Arctic Oscillation (AO), with the positive phase being associated with enhanced activity. The combined ENSO–AO impact is relevant for situations such as in early 2021, when persistent, strong positive and negative AO events occurred during La Niña conditions. Here we examine the relation of a spatially resolved tornado environment index (TEI) with ENSO and the AO in climate model forecasts of February, March, and April conditions over North America. Bivariate composites on Niño 3.4 and AO indices show that TEI predictability is high (strong signals and probability shifts) when the ENSO and AO signals reinforce each other and low when they cancel each other. The largest increase in the expected value and variance of TEI occurs when Niño 3.4 is negative, and the AO is positive. Signal-to-noise ratios are higher during El Niño–negative AO than during La Niña–positive AO, but probability shifts are comparable.