IPO市场的浪潮:历史与兴起

V. Belyaev
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摘要

主题。本文研究了首次公开发行(IPO)市场中的集群现象。本文的目的是对有关IPO市场行为的文献进行批判性分析,并确定公司在证券交易所上市的最佳时机。本研究借鉴了信息收集和处理的分析方法,以及比较分析的结果。本文总结了国内外学者对IPO市场聚类的研究成果,界定了成功上市的标准,揭示了影响市场动态的诸多因素。并确定了预测首次公开发行(ipo)热点市场开始的可能方法和指标。宏观经济因素和投资者情绪解释了IPO市场的聚集性。鉴于这个市场的波动是短期性质的,在预测首次公开发行浪潮的开始时,宏观经济表现不是一个不准确的指标,而不是投资者情绪。股市从衰退到增长的逆转、连续三个月的积极市场动态以及一段时间的低波动率等指标,可以作为一波首次公开发行即将到来的指标。如果某一特定行业的公司IPO成功,只要股票市场在此期间持续呈现积极趋势,该行业类似公司的交易数量可能会增加,这是为IPO做好准备所必需的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Waves of the IPO market: The history and emergence
Subject. The article considers the phenomenon of clustering in the initial public offering (IPO) market. Objectives. The aim is to perform a critical analysis of literature on the IPO market behavior and determine the optimal moment of company's listing on stock exchange. Methods. The study draws on analytical methods of information gathering and processing, as well as the comparative analysis. Results. The paper summarizes results of works by researchers on the IPO markets clustering, defines criteria for successful listing on stock exchange, unveils a number of factors affecting the market dynamics. It also determines possible ways and indicators to predict the onset of the hot issue market for initial public offerings. Conclusions. Macroeconomic factors and investor sentiment explain the clustering of IPO markets. Given that the waves in this market are of short-term nature, the macroeconomic performance is an inaccurate indicator, when predicting the onset of waves of initial public offerings, as opposed to investor sentiment. Indicators, like the reversal of the stock market from recession to growth, positive market dynamics for three months, and a period of low imputed volatility may serve as indicators of the imminent onset of a wave of initial public offerings. A successful IPO of a company operating in a particular industry may lead to an increase in the number of transactions of similar companies from this industry, provided that the stock market continues to show a positive trend during the period, which is necessary to get ready for an IPO.
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