移民与犯罪:一个实证分析

Milo Bianchi, P. Buonanno, P. Pinotti
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引用次数: 42

摘要

在本文中,我们研究了1990年至2003年期间意大利各省移民与犯罪之间的实证关系。根据警方的数据,我们首先证明了移民人口的规模与财产犯罪的发生率和总体犯罪率呈正相关。然后,我们使用基于向其他欧洲国家迁移的工具变量来确定意大利移民人口外生变化的因果影响。根据这些估计,移民只增加了抢劫的发生率,对所有其他类型的犯罪没有影响。由于抢劫在所有刑事犯罪中只占很小的一部分,因此对总体犯罪率的影响与零没有显著差异。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Immigration and Crime: An Empirical Analysis
In this paper we examine the empirical relationship between immigration and crime across Italian provinces during the period 1990-2003. Drawing on police data, we first document that the size of the immigrant population is positively correlated with the incidence of property crimes and with the overall crime rate. We then use instrumental variables based on migration towards other European countries to identify the causal impact of exogenous changes in the immigrant population of Italy. According to these estimates, immigration increases only the incidence of robberies and has no effect on all other types of crime. Since robberies represent a very small fraction of all criminal offences, the effect on the overall crime rate is not significantly different from zero.
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