宏观经济公告对巴西期货市场的高频影响

Francisco Santos, M. Garcia, M. C. Medeiros
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引用次数: 1

摘要

对巴西期货市场宏观经济公告影响的估计用于揭示宏观经济基本面与资产价格之间的关系。利用2008年10月至2011年1月的日内数据,我们发现外部宏观经济公告主导了外汇和Ibovespa市场的价格变化,而国内宏观经济公告的影响主要局限于利率合约。我们还提出了一种基于每个市场的条件价格反应的投资策略,在样本外研究中获得了70%的成功率。最后,我们记录了对成交量和买卖价差的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The High Frequency Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements in the Brazilian Futures Markets
The estimation of the impact of macroeconomic announcements in the Brazilian futures markets is used to uncover the relationship between macroeconomic fundamentals and asset prices. Using intraday data from October 2008 to January 2011, we find that external macroeconomic announcements dominate price changes in the Foreign Exchange and Ibovespa markets, while the impact of the domestic ones is mainly restricted to Interest Rate contracts. We additionally propose an investment strategy based on the conditional price reaction of each market that achieved a success rate of 70% in an out-of-sample study. Finally, we document the impact on volume and bid-ask spreads.
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