预测方法和模型在消费者行为分析和广告和零售策略形成中的应用

Y. Lyzhnyk
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目标。本文的目的是研究预测模型和方法在分析消费者行为和形成广告和零售战略中的应用的方法论基础,特别是评估预测消费者行为的可能性(其数量特征),并确定预测在企业营销和销售政策中的应用。本研究的理论基础是国内外科学家的成果。为了实现这一目标,本文采用了分析、综合、抽象-逻辑和比较的研究方法,概括了预测模型和方法在消费者行为评估中的应用方向;回归分析-建立预测模型,获得表征家庭支出预期领域的指标的未来值,以及评估消费者行为的定量参数。结果。该研究认为,在制定成功的广告和零售战略之前,需要分析消费者行为及其预测,这是一个基本组成部分。研究发现,使用预测回归模型可以量化消费者的未来行为,确定他们的利益和预期销售额,这是制定成功的广告策略和提高销售效率的重要前提。对预测模型和方法在消费者行为估计中的应用方向进行了概括。计算出的家庭总支出结构变化的平均预期水平和这些指标的相关性分析,使我们能够对家庭总支出结构进行多因素自回归指标,获得预测模型,统计评估其是否适当,并最终制定使用预测数据的方向。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
APPLICATION OF FORECASTING METHODS AND MODELS WITHIN THE ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR AND IN THE ADVERTISING AND RETAILING STRATEGY FORMATION
Objective. The objective of the article is to investigate the methodological basis of application of forecasting models and methods in the analysis of consumer behaviour and in the formation of advertising and retail strategy, in particular, to assess the possibilities of forecasting consumer behaviour (its quantitative characteristics) and determine the application of forecasts in marketing: sales policy of the enterprise. Methods. The theoretical basis of the study is the achievements of foreign and domestic scientists. To achieve this goal, the following research methods are used: analysis, synthesis, abstract-logical and comparative - to generalize the directions of application of predictive models and methods in assessing consumer behaviour; regression analysis - to build predictive models, obtain future values ​​of indicators that characterize the expected areas of household spending and quantitative parameters for assessing consumer behaviour. Results. The study considers the need to analyze consumer behaviour and its forecasting as a basic component that precedes the development of a successful advertising and retail strategy. The study finds out that the use of predictive regression models can quantify the future behaviour of consumers, determine their benefits and expected sales, which is an important prerequisite for developing a successful advertising strategy and increase the efficiency of sales. The generalization of directions of application of forecasting models and methods at an estimation of behaviour of consumers is performed. The calculated average expected levels of changes in the structure of total household expenditures and the correlation analysis of these indicators allow to perform multifactor autoregressive indicators of the structure of total household expenditures, obtain forecast models, statistically assess their adequacy and, ultimately, formulate directions for using forecast data.
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