保险业绩效与尼日利亚经济增长

Emeka Nkoro, Nenubari John Ikue, Ph.D, Chidinma Mary Nwantah
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引用次数: 3

摘要

本研究分析了1980年至2015年间尼日利亚的保险业和经济增长。二级数据包括实际国内生产总值、保险业务保费、保险业理赔支出和通货膨胀率,数据来源于尼日利亚中央银行(CBN)。本研究采用普通最小二乘(OLS)多元回归技术、描述性统计、增广Dickey-Fuller (ADF)平稳性检验和ARDL Bound检验协整。研究发现,保险业保费(PMI)在长期和短期内都对经济增长产生负向影响。保险业理赔支出与经济增长长期呈递进关系,与经济增长短期呈负向关系。因此,我们根据凯恩斯总需求理论得出结论,该理论指出,“如果我们必须等到长期来看,我们都会死”,尼日利亚的保险业在审查期间没有对尼日利亚的经济增长产生积极影响,其业务和投资也没有突出并有助于尼日利亚的增长和发展。基于这些结果,我们建议对尼日利亚的保险业进行更多的投资,特别是在政府制定适当的政策方面,这些政策将引导资金并鼓励行业参与者之间的竞争,并始终有助于经济增长。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Performances of insurance industry and the Nigerian economic growth
This research analyzed the insurance industry and economic growth in Nigeria between 1980 and 2015. Secondary data ranging from real gross domestic product, the premium of the insurance business, claim expenditure of insurance industry and inflation rate were utilized and sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) multiple regression techniques, Descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test of stationarity and ARDL Bound Test Co-Integration were adopted for the model in the Study. The findings revealed that the premium of the insurance industry (PMI) impacts negatively on economic growth both in the extended and short run period. The claim expenditure of the insurance industry (CEX) revealed a progressive relationship with economic growth in the long run and a negative relation with growth in the short run. We therefore conclude following the Keynesian theory of aggregate demand which states that, ‘’if we will have to wait till the long run, we will all be dead’’, that insurance industry in Nigeria has not impacted positively on economic growth of Nigeria within the period under review and its operations and investment have not been prominent and contributory to the growth and development of Nigeria. Based on these outcomes, we recommend amongst others, that more investment ought to be made towards the insurance industry in Nigeria especially in terms of proper policy formulation by the government that would channel funds and encourage competition among the players in the industry and invariably contribute to the growth of the economy.
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