对流层水汽的增加加剧了全球变暖和气候变化

V. K. Patel, J. Kuttippurath
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引用次数: 3

摘要

在温室气体(GHGs)中,大气中的水蒸气最为丰富,对地球的辐射收支影响较大,在区域天气过程中起决定性作用。利用卫星、探空和再分析资料,研究了全球对流层水汽的长期(1980-2020)变化,并根据其辐射反馈评估了水汽变化对区域和全球气候的影响。全球对流层水汽在不同地区的年气候学变化在5 ~ 60 kg/ m2之间。除热带地区外,南北半球均存在强烈的季节循环,夏季最高(25 ~ 65 kg/ m2),冬季最小(5 ~ 20 kg/ m2)。在1980-2020年期间,大多数地区对流层年平均水汽呈正趋势,约为0.025至0.1 kg/ m2 /年,其中北极由于温度的高升高而显著增加。在整个对流层(除200 hPa外),陆地和海洋的年平均比湿度均呈现显著的正趋势,热带地区在1000 hPa时的值最高,约为0.015 g/kg/年。对地面短波的相关辐射效应变化范围为- 5至- 70 W/m 2,其中玛瑙斯、波尔图和汉蒂-毛西伊斯克(热带站)的辐射效应最大,极地地区的辐射效应最小,约为- 5至- 10 W/m 2。模式对未来高排放情景的预估显示,到21世纪末,大气水汽将大幅增加,大约是极地纬度当前值的两倍。这是全球和区域气候的一大问题,因为水蒸气的增加将进一步加剧全球变暖和北极效应等现象。因此,这项研究警告说,跨纬度和海拔的对流层水蒸气显著增加,这可能进一步增加全球温度,从而加速全球气候变化。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Increase in Tropospheric Water Vapor Amplifies Global Warming and Climate Change
Among the greenhouse gases (GHGs), atmospheric water vapor is the most abundant, has a large influence on the radiation budget of Earth, and plays a decisive role in regional weather processes. We investigate the long-term (1980–2020) changes in global tropospheric water vapor using satellite, radiosonde, and reanalysis data and assess the impact of changes in water vapor on regional and global climate with respect to its radiative feedback. The annual climatology of global tropospheric water vapor varies from 5 to 60 kg/m 2 across different regions. Except in the tropics, there is a strong seasonal cycle in both the southern and northern hemispheres, with the highest values in summer (25 to 65 kg/m 2 ) and smallest values in winter (5 to 20 kg/m 2 ). Most regions show positive trends in the annual mean tropospheric water vapor, at about 0.025 to 0.1 kg/m 2 /year, for the period of 1980–2020, with a notable increase in the Arctic because of the high rise in temperature there. Throughout the troposphere (except 200 hPa), the annual mean specific humidity shows significant positive trends over both land and oceans, with the highest values of approximately 0.015 g/kg/year at 1000 hPa in the tropics. The associated radiative effects on shortwaves at the surface vary from −5 to −70 W/m 2 , with the highest values at Manaus, Porto, and Hanty–Mawsijsk (tropical stations) and the smallest values of about −5 to −10 W/m 2 in the polar regions. The model projections for future high-emission scenarios show a large increase in atmospheric water vapor, approximately twice the current value in the polar latitudes by the end of the 21st century. This is a great concern for global and regional climate, as the rise in water vapor would further augment global warming and phenomena, such as the Arctic amplification. Therefore, this study cautions that there is a significant rise in tropospheric water vapor across latitudes and altitudes, which could further increase the global temperature and, thus, accelerate global climate change.
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